After 70 years of waiting, the bus arrived. That is the parade bus in Newcastle as the club won the Carabao Cup, their first piece of silverware since winning the 1955 FA Cup. The Magpies were the outsiders against Liverpool who have been on a march in the Premier League and hold a 12 point lead at the top from Arsenal. Because of this Liverpool were odds on favourites but in a one off game Newcastle showed that they were the better team on the day winning 2-1. The likes of Joelinton and Alexander Isak played magnificently as did the whole side and Liverpool found that they kept losing the battle in midfield. Certainly this was not a usual Liverpool performance and perhaps there was still a hangover from their Champions League exit. It was only five days ago that Liverpool were knocked out of the Champions League by PSG at Anfield in a penalty shoot out after the two legged affair had ended 1-1. While Liverpool have been the strongest side in England this season this has been a week of unravelling. Because before it it seemed as though new manager Arne Slot could do no wrong but suddenly Liverpool have lost out on two potential trophies in under a week.
Newcastle absolutely deserved their victory. This was not a game where they had to hang on although the last few minutes deep into injury time when the Reds got one back would have been deeply unnerving for the Magpies fans. Let's congratulate manager Eddie Howe too who has had his ups and downs trying to manage a talented bunch of players who have shown consistency in his time but have also lost games you would expect them to win. But this feels like the fruit of Howe's labours have paid off. Newcastle despite winning no trophies since the 1950s have come close on occasion reaching some cup finals only for the occasion and weight of history to be too much for them and then letting the game pass them by. But here they tore that sorry script up and were the dominant force against the mighty Liverpool and that has to be applauded. Let us celebrate the city of Newcastle, and of course the loyal Toon Army who really deserved to see their club finally come good and win a trophy. March 16 will be a day that the club will remember forever. As for Eddie Howe, he will continue his job with the club and aspire to make this win not a one off. Surely his future resume will include that he was England's manager too. In winning the Carabao Cup Howe became the first England manager in the country to win a major trophy since Harry Redknapp 17 years ago, that's a damning statistic. Is it because English managers are poor or is it because English managers are getting overlooked for the top jobs? Perhaps that is an argument for another day, for now let's just say once again congratulations to Newcastle United, it was a long time coming.
Since Erling Haaland arrived at Manchester City almost three years ago he has been a shoe in for the top goalscorer award and has won the last two scoring a record 36 goals in his first season and then 30 in his second season. In this campaign the Norwegian has reflected his clubs form and while showing moments of greatness it looks like he will personally lose a title that is dear to him. After all Haaland is all about the goals. Not many could have seen this coming and while Haaland has a respectable 21 goals so far he is trailing Liverpool's Mohamed Salah by six goals. There are 9 games left and the projected final goals of each player stands at 35 for Salah and 27 for Haaland. This would be the first time that Haaland has hit under 30 goals in a league season for City and looks like his statistic is going to cap off a pretty poor season for Manchester City by their usual standards. Salah meanwhile may be able to equal or even break the Premier League goalscoring record- he needs another 10 goals from nine games, it doesn't seem impossible. So far Haaland has netted well over 100 goals in all competitions for City and has scored 87 times in under three seasons for quite a terrific turn but heading into this season it was felt that Haaland would be in number 1 position again. Salah thought otherwise. A lot of credit must go to Liverpool manager Arne Slot who has revitalised the Egyptian. Under former manager Jürgen Klopp Salah was still banging in the goals but his body language looked off. Perhaps this is a perfect tonic of having a fresh manager in charge with new batteries, tactics and options and also that this may be Salah's final season with the Reds as he looks to have a huge pay day somewhere else, this is still undecided but if Salah smashes goal scoring records and Liverpool win the league then that isn't such a bad moment to sign off, though fans would be left gutted. As for Haaland he may not even finish in 2nd place look out for Newcastle's outstanding Alexander Isak who with 19 goals is only two shy of the Norwegian.
Premier League Top Goalscorer: Mohamed Salah 1.08, Erling Haaland 10.00
The script was supposed to read that by March high fliers Nottingham Forest were supposed to pick up key injuries, get tired and start to drop points and yes there have been some scares along the way but the club are well on course for a top four finish still. It would be a gigantic achievement if they made it to the Champions League in only their third season since returning to the top flight for the first time since 1999. One could think it's the late 1970s early 80s to see Aston Villa in the competition and perhaps Forest for next season. Their third position at the moment and the way they are conserving the top four reminds one of Leicester's incredible 2016 league title charge. Every week that was supposed to be the week that they would mess it all up and drop points and hit a wall and yet Claudio Ranieri's side just kept going on. While Leicester's was the greatest prize with the amount of money now in the Champions League you have to ask just how important this will be to Forest going forward.
Can Forest do it though. As it stands they are 4 points behind 2nd place Arsenal though that will not concern them too much. The fear comes from Chelsea and Manchester City. Now normally these two clubs could go the next 9 games undefeated but they have not proven this in the league and City have looked out of ideas since October. There is no consistency in City and Chelsea in this campaign so in theory Forest should have little trouble one would suspect. In the last two games while Forest have picked up 6 points at this crucial stage of the season Chelsea have won 3 and City just 1 including a loss away to Forest.
Forest have two tricky matches coming up when play resumes in April first against Manchester United at home and then away to Aston Villa. They also face Chelsea in their final game which may end up being a mouthwatering effective play off to play in next season's Champions League. We think that Forest can at least earn 13 more points which would take them up to 67 points. If Chelsea can win some key games and they have some hard ones coming up having to face Liverpool and Tottenham and a west London derby they could have 65 points coming into that final crunch game with Forest. But here's where it gets interesting because potentially Manchester City have the best run in of the three and with 48 points they could get 20 from the 27 on offer if they can find their early season form. Could it all come down to goal difference in the end? For now Chelsea have a 1 goal advantage over City. What is clear is that Forest are in the driving seat and the ball is in their half.
To Finish in the Top Four: Manchester City 1.70, Nottingham Forest 1.70, Chelsea 2.25
It seems that we have had to wait ages for this, Thomas Tuchel will manage his first game for England this week. It hasn't started well given Tuchel's early selections. Some will question why the injury prone Reece James has made the cut and will question further why Jordan Henderson is there. However Tuchel at least in his first few games cannot lose and yes take that literally. His first fixtures include having to play Albania, Latvia, Serbia and Andorra home and away. All of these games should be wins with the exception of Serbia but we could still expect to see a solid performance and a couple of goals in that. For the other games and especially Andorra home and away a cricket score will be the only convincing one and Henderson is more than capable of performing in those games. These are for World Cup qualifiers but if England trip up in any of these games then Tuchel will instantly go down as one of the poorest managers in England history. So Tuchel's first few games represent total focus of course but sadly no challenge so it will be very difficult to judge how good he is going to be for the national side. England will qualify for the World Cup next year without moving out of second gear and there has to be a worry that without competitive fixtures England may go into the tournament at a disadvantage. Perhaps the real worry for England is how they have performed against the best in the world on the two other occasions they hired foreign managers. There were some bright moments but all in all Gareth Southgate's England tenure proved to be better than for example Fabio Capello even though Capello is clearly the better and more successful manager. So are the FA not learning from history and are they about to make the same mistake again? Well we will only find out in 15 months time.
To win the World Cup: England 8.00
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