This story was perhaps not expected, as the Champions League group winners, who were convincing group winners, were knocked out in the round of 16. Liverpool who have dominated the Premier League were also doing incredibly well in the Champions League and now they are out. In their first leg game against French champions PSG Liverpool were second best on the pitch as they were run ragged but still came out 1-0 winners to the astonishment of everyone in the stadium. And so the narrative looked fairly predictable with the 2nd leg at home Liverpool would find the right moments and would strike at the key times. Granted Mohamed Salah missed an early chance but he also dived for a penalty. Let it be known Salah is a wonderful player but there has to be question marks over his winning of penalties when the chips are down for the Reds. Thankfully the referee was not fooled on this occasion. By this time it was PSG who grabbed the goal and suddenly things looked off. Time and again we have witnessed very special nights at Anfield when the best players on the planet have been overwhelmed and looked ordinary on the famed hallowed turf and Liverpool have taken the game over. But this week it did not happen and PSG finally got through on penalties. Never a great way to end a game but the drama works well. It felt like justice was done though and PSG were simply the better side over the two legs.
But what should we make of this event? It feels significant if only because we are reminded that the French League is poor and yet now the best side in England haven't even reached the quarter finals of the Champions League. Manager Arne Slot will want to play it down but make no mistake he'll be devastated by this loss. The way the game played out shows that Liverpool in fact are not in absolutely prime Jürgen Klopp form. Perhaps we didn't expect that this season and yet Slot's side have a 15 point lead at the top of the Premier League. This weekend Liverpool will face Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final. A win for Newcastle would be historic, a win for Liverpool would feel like another trophy amongst others but would of course be special as it would be Slot's first. But if Liverpool failed here then the narrative soon turns to a side who absolutely dominated everything they were in to a team who have lost two pieces of silverware in under a week.
To win the Carabao Cup: Liverpool 1.30, Newcastle 3.25
There have been groans that this Premier League season has been too predictable and a little boring. Let's face it since before Christmas Liverpool have looked like champions, Arsenal have looked just off the pace and as we head into late March that is still the case. At the bottom there is no real sense of danger apart from Wolves who may get sucked down into a battle. However we are getting into a narrative now where the three teams that come up are the three that are going down. A month ago fans seemed excited to think that Tottenham or Manchester United after their dire seasons could face a relegation battle. Realistically it was never on the cards when these teams had a good 8 point advantage from 18th. Ipswich were never going to amass the points to threaten either side and we are in a situation where the three teams that came up are going straight back down. In last place is Southampton who have just 9 points. The team cannot be this poor and one has to wonder if some players have downed tools too early. That isn't to say that the Saints were never going down this season but 9 points 7 months into the season is not acceptable. There are some European places up for grabs and that could be a mad dash to the end. Liverpool of course are a shoe in for a top four and Arsenal look that way too. But 3rd and 4th could be up for grabs and it would feel surreal if Manchester City were not able to finish in the top four.
Premier League top 4 finish: Manchester City 1.57, Chelsea 1.91, Nottingham Forest 2.25, Newcastle 3.25, Brighton 10.00
There are problems within this Arsenal side. One of them seems to be down to bad luck with key injuries to their best goalscorers and how badly they have missed Bukayo Saka over the past few months. However Arsenal always seem, at least under Mikel Arteta, one or two quality players short from being able to step outside of Arsene Wenger's shadow. The Gunners look set to finish 2nd for the third season in a row and that is a solid achievement but fans are feeling frustrated by it all and this is because Arsenal are a side who were used to winning trophies, there is a real hunger for silverware. In a sense perhaps it feels harsh to criticise a side who finish 2nd three years in a row but Arsenal are not an emerging side they are a heavyweight of football. They exist in one of the best stadiums in Europe and are filled with quality players who like to play fast attacking football. But there is a sense that Mikel Arteta's time at the club could end up being a failure. In his five years with the Gunners they have won just one FA Cup and that isn't going to be deemed good enough not for a club the size of Arsenal.
Despite Arteta not giving up on the Premier League everyone else knows that it is over, 15 points is just too much of a gap at this stage of the season. Will they reduce the gap? Yes they should do but this title remains one of the easiest Liverpool are going to win. So we turn our attention to the Champions League because despite the Gunners faults and injuries they have at least made a statement and reached the last 8 of the competition. Arsenal put 9 goals past PSV over two legs in the last round and showed just how effective they can be on the counter in those games. However now they will face Real Madrid, serial winners of the competition and the feeling is the Gunners will go out. There is a doom mood even with fans but should there be? At home this Arsenal side should be a match for anyone, Arsenal should not be weary to face Madrid they should grab the opportunity and sense a semi final instead. Let's remember two decades ago when Arsenal first met Real in this competition. Even with the Wenger and Thierry Henry factor there was a sense that Arsenal were going out and yet they went through and didn't even concede a goal over the two legs. That Arsenal side even reached the final, their only one so far. Everyone associated with the club needs to have more belief even if they go into that match as the underdogs, because in reality Arsenal has a chance to go further than they think is capable but does that belief exist in the dressing room?
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